(Image credit: 2021 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report) Best track model in 2021: the GFSĪs usual, the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms in 2021 were tough to beat, and none of the individual models outperformed the official forecast at any time period, when compared to a “no-skill” model called CLIPER5 (Figure 2). OFCL=Official NHC forecast GFS=Global Forecast System model HMON=Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic regional model HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model Euro=European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model COAMPS=COAMPS-TC regional model. Skill of the top computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2021, compared to a “no skill” model called CLIPER5 that uses only climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence assumes that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction and at the same speed that it is currently going). The improvement in track forecast accuracy has slowed down in recent years, however, suggesting that forecasts may be nearing their limit in accuracy because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.įigure 2. Those numbers amount to an extraordinary accomplishment, one undoubtedly leading to huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst. Over the past 30 years, one- to three-day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 75% over the past 20 years, four-day and five-day track forecast errors by 50 – 60%. (Image credit: 2021 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report)ĭuring the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, NHC track forecasts had accuracies near or better than the five-year average, with two-day and three-day track forecasts setting new records for accuracy.
Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 – 2021. Put your trust in the National Hurricane Center, or NHC, forecast.Īlthough an individual model may outperform the official NHC forecast in some situations, the 2021 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report documents that overall, it is very difficult for any one model to consistently beat the NHC forecasts for track and for intensity.įigure 1. This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Mastersįor those puzzling over the various hurricane computer forecast models to figure out which one to believe, the best answer is: Don’t believe any of them. The most reliable hurricane models, based on their 2021 performance The most reliable hurricane models, based on their 2021 performance